Rahul's Salvo May Galvanize The MVA But Is That Good Enough?

The allegations levelled by the Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, created quite a stir in the political world last week, but some of those were specifically related to constituencies in the Maharashtra state. The allegation that there was an unreasonable rise in the number of voters as well as a rise in voting in the late hours on voting days was mainly about the Maharashtra constituencies. This has given some opportunity to the opposition parties in Maharashtra, mainly the MVA alliance, to get galvanised and raise questions over the poll process. The big question, however, is how long will this enthusiasm last, and will this galvanisation be enough for them to join hands ahead of the big civic poll?

Currently, with over 300 seats won in the last assembly polls in Maharashtra, the BJP-led Mahayuti is firm in its saddle, and the opposition looks like it has been scattered since the November 2024 results of the state assembly. The opposition, that is, Sharad Pawar's NCP, the Congress party and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, did very well in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls; however, they just could not repeat the performance mainly because of the Direct Benefit Transfer schemes (DBT) rolled out by the government and the disputes over seat sharing among the opposition, which went on till the last minute before the filling of nominations. This resulted in a debacle for the opposition parties, with Sharad Pawar managing to get just 10 MLAs elected, which is his worst performance in the last two-and-a-half decades since he formed his Nationalist Congress Party, or NCP, in 1999, while Uddhav Thackeray got merely 18 seats.

The opposition looked listless for the past six months, and no agitation was seen on any major issues out in the field. There was no big campaign taken up by the Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, and NCP (SP) combine branded as MVA, or Maha Vikas Aghadi. Even when scandals broke out about ministers in the BJP-led Mahayuti government, the opposition looked sluggish to pick these issues up and go to the public with a solid campaign. But all this seems to have changed in the past few days since Rahul Gandhi fired a salvo against the quasi-judicial Election Commission of India, or ECI, over alleged fake voter lists and IDs of voters which looked suspicious. Rahul's attack against the ECI gave something like a shot in the arm to the opposition in Maharashtra, and they are now suddenly seen out on the streets campaigning over these allegations. But the big question is how long will the "steam in the opposition engine" last over these issues?

The first issue on which there seems to be some dispute within the MVA alliance partners is over seat sharing for the upcoming civic polls, which will happen five or six months from now. In Mumbai, Pune, Navi Mumbai, Nagpur, Thane and many other cities, will the MVA alliance partners go for seat sharing, or will they fight separately? That is one big question on everybody's mind. There were many disputes and ego issues seen during the seat-sharing talks when assembly polls happened, and this time, there is likely to be a repeat of that.

The second issue is about what to do with Raj Thackeray's MNS, or Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Uddhav Thackeray seems eager to take Raj Thackeray along in the upcoming polls. Some public opinion surveys done by the BJP show that if Raj and Uddhav join hands in cities like Mumbai and Thane, they could cause a big dent in the BJP-led Mahayuti voter base. But the Congress party, which is a big part of the MVA, does not want Raj Thackeray inside the MVA or to get into any seat-sharing alliance with him. How can this tangle be solved? is a big question.

Congress Remains Cautious On Raj Thackeray’s Entry As Uddhav Supports Rahul Gandhi In 'Vote Chori' Campaign

The third issue is about whether Uddhav Thackeray wants to now walk on the path of the Hindutva agenda or whether he wants to attract the minority community votes as he did in the Lok Sabha polls. In the Lok Sabha of 2024, it was clear that Uddhav walked on the secular path and attracted a huge amount of votes from the minorities. But this was used by the BJP in the assembly polls, which came six months later. The BJP and its partner, Eknath Shinde, claimed that Uddhav Thackeray had deserted Hindu followers and left the path of Hindutva. This campaign perhaps worked in cities like Thane and Navi Mumbai, where Uddhav suffered in the assembly polls. Now the question is, will Uddhav return to the "path of Hindutva", and if he does so, how will the Congress and Sharad Pawar's NCP react to that?

There are many such issues on which there seems to be no clarity as of now! How will the opposition unity—which is seen right now in the wake of Rahul Gandhi's attack against the ECI—last in the long term? There are more questions than answers at this stage, and nobody can say if the galvanisation seen among the MVA activists will sustain till the civic poll season arrives in four or five months!

Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.